Short-term decline in the price of pork is less likely or pushing the high CPI in August

According to the latest information from Baina, the pork price that has attracted much attention has been slumped in mid-July. However, the time of the plunging did not last long, and pork prices returned to high levels only after maintaining a low price of ten days.

A few days ago, relevant people from the Ministry of Commerce stated that the overall increase in pork prices in July this year reached 11.7%, and pork has also become the leading spot in the price of edible agricultural products by virtue of its huge price increase.

Baina.com reporter learned from the relevant person in charge of the China Live Hog Warning Network that after the State Council held an executive meeting on July 12th, the price of pigs plunged for some time, but it bottomed out on July 22 and entered the market for three consecutive weeks after August. Rebound, the average live pig price is now around 19.3 yuan/kg.

Market participants told the Baina Network reporter that because of the festival factors such as the Mid-Autumn Festival that have come through in succession, the demand for meat stocking has increased in some areas, so the price of pork may still rise in the short term. From a year-on-year perspective, the pork price in August may be about 50% higher than that of the same period of last year and the driving force for CPI will increase. Looking at the current trend of pork prices, the August CPI should be comparable to that in July, even May exceed.

Earlier, market players had predicted that pork prices would fall back to normal levels. However, according to the latest monitoring data, the national wholesale price of pork rose 0.1% from the previous week from the week of August 15 to 21. Throughout July, pork prices rose by 11.7% from the previous month.

In addition, according to the latest data from China Live Hog Warning Network, the average price of pigs slaughtered nationwide on August 23 was 19.26 yuan/kg, up 55.7% from 12.37 yuan/kg in the same period of last year; the average price of pork was 30.5 yuan/kg, which was comparable to that of the same period of last year. 19.86 yuan/kg was up 53.6%; piglet price was 43.9 yuan/kg, up 125.4% year-on-year; sow price was 1920 yuan/head, up 38.7% year-on-year.

The rise in pork prices is fundamentally due to the recent shortage of live pigs. A few days ago, the Ministry of Commerce officially announced that the slaughter volume of designated domestic slaughter pigs was 16.013 million in July, a decrease of 2.06% from 16.349 million in June and 9.8% from the same period of last year. In addition, since February of this year, the slaughter volume of slaughterhouses at or above the designated scale has been reduced by 6 consecutive months from the previous year, and has decreased by 4 consecutive months. In July, the slaughter volume continued to decrease year-on-year, and supply recovery was still slow.

Economic experts said in an interview with Bainer.com reporters that the drastic reduction in the number of live hog farming households in rural areas has resulted in confusing pig production, combined with rising labor costs in the livestock industry, rising feed prices, and uncertain market prospects. Impact, the outlook is not optimistic. It is unlikely that the price of pork will drop sharply in the short term, because the tight supply of pigs does not show signs of abating. In the coming period of time, the price of meat will enter a high consolidation period, and its role in pulling the CPI in the second half of the year will continue.

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