Purchase restriction can only be a transitional policy

The current scene is unprecedented, and the housing price issue has become a political issue. The relevant state ministries and commissions have stated that they will conduct assessments and accountability on the stability of housing prices and housing security for local governments, conduct interviews on the inadequacy of policies and ineffective work, and pursue accountability. People's ears sounded like a voice: "Ah!"

The local government's control campaign, with the purchase restriction order, kicked off the four major cities in the north, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shenzhen, and went all the way to the provincial capital cities and planned cities. Recently, he said again that it would be necessary to purchase restrictions on second- and third-tier cities. Can purchase restriction really be the killer of real estate regulation? No. After this "sports", does house prices really drop? No. To masturbate, there is an official statement, saying that it is "to curb the rapid rise in housing prices."

I said a joke to my friend: I once said to my wife that you are too fat now, don't eat meat, stick for a month or two and you can surely slim down. My wife did as I said. Although she was not obviously overweight for a period of time, she did not lose weight. When I was slightly relaxed and supervised, her appetite could not hold her back and soon she ate it back. In fact, restricting purchases with my wife's "fat restriction" is essentially the same thing. This is not called market regulation, but the market is tossing.

Look at those first-tier cities, where restrictions on purchases were introduced for a year, and how effective the results are for all to see. There have been no signs of Chinese housing prices falling sharply and developers disarming them. Under the strong compulsion of the central government, local governments constantly resorted to more extreme limit orders, resulting in a limited number of “Japanese CDs”.

Of course, as market commentators standing up to talk and talk, we cannot criticize the government when it comes to a policy. We have to believe that this is a big game for the government in the next round. Only under the combined effects of a number of factors can the purchase restriction order exert certain effects. This is the same as my wife's "slimming project." She can stop eating meat, but she can't solve the problem simply by not eating meat.

If the purchase restriction order is to be effective, the first is the unambiguity of the bank's implementation policy. The state’s attitude toward high inflation and tight monetary conditions is firm. It is highly probable for individuals to judge that banks strictly implement policies. In the past few months, through contact with the banking business department, it was learned that the implementation of the New Deal of the Housing Loan has indeed been repeated, but it may now be real. Historical experience shows that the second half of the year is when banks have less lending and pressure on the loan business is small, and it is also a period of high tightening loan policies. From the perspective of the general environment, the constant adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks can be regarded as a compensatory punishment measure for large-scale lending in the previous period.

The second is that developers can respond to policies, strategically reduce prices, and do not support. Regulatory Sword refers to housing prices, house prices do not fall, the government will not be able to stop, so it will appear to purchase such a "violent" policy. Do not believe that some "brick home" "government never said to let home prices fall" speech, it is an illusion. The deadlock of developers was an important reason for the failure of regulation and control in the past year. Developers did not appear to have large-scale and large-scale price adjustments. Instead, they reached a small upsurge in the release of rigid demand.

In fact, developers are so persistent, on the one hand, under inflation, labor, materials soaring, land and more are high prices, no one is willing to squeeze their profits to respond to government calls. On the other hand, after the blaze of 2009-2010, developers have accumulated some bottom-line capital and the government has put up with endurance. The more representative remarks are: Under the tight monetary conditions, the manufacturing industry will be able to sustain it. If it does not believe that the real estate will not be sustained. However, for the sake of overall interest, it is still worthwhile for developers to take appropriate and strategic price cuts in order to warm up the property market if the initiative is still in place.

Again, it is how governments at all levels can strictly enforce policies. The strict implementation of policies is the hardest. The central government and local governments often have two faces in the regulation of real estate. The central government is harsh and the region is moderate. It can be seen from the restriction of purchase orders in places that have already been introduced that, even in the situation where “politics is in command”, the severity has been gradually reduced. It is difficult for the local government to have the disadvantageous nature of “tight market”. The reason everyone understands.

Everyone knows that the implementation after the promulgation of the policy is the real problem. The effectiveness of government departments has always been questionable. This is China, you know. Do not you see, "false divorce," "false contract mortgage," "bank mortgages in different places," such market methods are simply impossible to prevent. Divorce only needs to be registered in the civil affairs department; it is long popular for fictional high transaction price mortgages; Shenzhen people can buy a house in Huizhou and can find Shenzhen bank mortgage, which is not affected by the limit loan of Huizhou Bank. Even in the “20% down payment” era, there have been a large number of “zero down payment” projects on the market. “There are policies, there are countermeasures,” and the government’s tactics for doing everything it can to plan are not “folk”.

If the above three points cannot be met, it will be very difficult for the purchase restriction order to have a certain effect. Perhaps the state has introduced a purchase restriction order in order to allow it to fill this special period before the massive protection of the housing market to prevent the emergence of irrational conditions in the real estate market. It can be judged that the purchase restriction will at least insist on the day when the protection housing is mass-marketed, so that the protection housing can solve the housing problem of low-income people, or the introduction of a real-estate property tax, instead of Shanghai and Chongqing version of the boots, can make From the function of the investment property, the residence returns to its original function of residence. The problem is that the property tax and the protection of the interest of the housing are too complex. To guarantee its real implementation, it is no less than the land revolution. Can the purchase limit persist until this moment comes? After all, purchase restriction can only be an irrational transitional policy. Its behavior is like drinking and quenching thirst.

In a market dominated by investment funds, only the introduction of real estate taxes and the large number of affordable housing units will fully change the flow of funds in the market. The problem with the current housing market is that “people who have bought a house have never lost a share.” We need a self-balanced, up-and-down market. In the long run, we do not need a leap-forward goal for the construction of affordable housing, and we do not need quick-and-fast purchase orders. Otherwise, similar to the "miracle" of the Wenzhou train chasing type may also be presented in the real estate field.

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