Next year's macroeconomic policy tone will remain more prominent flexibility

The 2011 Central Economic Work Conference will be held soon. How will the overall economic situation of the next year "buy", how to adjust the focus of the work, how to position the macroeconomic policy, these topics will be answered one by one to be answered. The Politburo meeting held on the 9th actually pointed the way to answer the above questions.

For next year’s macroeconomic policy, the meeting was clearly defined as “implementing proactive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies and maintaining the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies”.

The proactive fiscal policy and sound monetary policy continued the unchanged tone of 2011.

The reason is that from the point of view of monetary policy, next year's economic trend, especially the external environment, is full of uncertainties. If monetary policy is fully relaxed prematurely, it will cause the economy to lay the hidden dangers of restart of inflation and return of asset bubbles, which is not conducive to the economy. Smooth operation. The word “stable” has rich connotations. In the short term, it can guide the monetary policy to change flexibly in the uncertain macroeconomic trend and return to the normal state. In the long run, it can create conditions for economic structural adjustment. Positive fiscal policies can be used to enhance the endogenous power of economic development and promote economic restructuring.

However, the basic tone does not mean that the specific policy remains unchanged.

At present, the deep-seated impact of the international financial crisis continues to show, and instability and uncertainties in the recovery process of developed countries have increased, and China may be affected by trade, capital flows, and expectations. From the domestic point of view, as economic growth adjusts to normal conditions, some new situations and new problems may also gradually appear.

In this context, there is a need for policies to allow for the balance of uncertainty. The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized that "advancement, flexibility, and forward-lookingness of the regulation should be strengthened." It is necessary to strengthen and improve macro-control more predictably, accurately grasp the intensity, pace, and focus of regulation and control, and make timely changes according to the situation. Make pre-adjustment and fine-tuning."

It can be seen from this that the flexibility and predictability of the policy next year will be greater than this year.

Monetary policy will flexibly arrange quantitative reserve instruments such as deposit reserve ratios and open market operations based on changes in capital flows, and rationally use interest rates and other price adjustment measures based on inflation levels and investment saving behavior. At the same time, the credit sector will optimize its structure and increase support for small businesses, farmers, and farmers.

The space for fiscal policy may be even greater, and will be more targeted, highlighting the investment in key spending areas. The fiscal policies that support the upgrading of strategic emerging industries and industrial structures will continue to be promoted in combination with tax incentives and fiscal subsidies. At the same time, financial investment in the area of ​​people's livelihood will also be further strengthened.

Next year is full of uncertainty and external demand is not optimistic. In order to ensure economic growth, the meeting proposed policy ideas such as expanding consumer demand and optimizing investment structure. The expansion of consumption depends on “improving the policies for promoting consumption, striving to increase the consumption power of residents, and increasing the income of low- and middle-income earners”. Investment optimization relies on “protecting the construction of continuing construction projects under construction and orderly advancing major projects identified in the '12th Five-Year Plan'. , strengthen the guidance and regulation of corporate investment."

Next year will also be an important year for the implementation of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The meeting put forward four "emphasis", namely "strive to expand domestic demand, focus on strengthening independent innovation and energy-saving emission reduction, focus on deepening reform and opening up, and strive to protect and improve people's livelihood."

It can be seen from this that next year, taking into account the economic structural adjustment and the stable and rapid economic development, domestic demand has been placed in an extremely important position. To expand domestic demand requires financial "awesomeness." Next year, the government will strengthen financial investment in the area of ​​people's livelihood. In addition to meeting the goal of 4% of education investment in GDP, it will continue to increase investment in the areas of affordable housing construction and water conservancy construction.

At the same time, in order to further deepen economic transformation, industrial policies and regional policies will also be launched intensively. The conference pointed out that we must vigorously promote industrial restructuring and regional coordinated development, actively cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries, promote the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, accelerate the development of service industries, especially modern service industries, and improve the environment for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises; The strategy will increase support for the development of the old revolutionary base areas, ethnic minority areas, frontier regions, and poverty-stricken areas, guide the central and western regions in an orderly manner to undertake industrial transfer, and promote the implementation of the main functional area planning.

The central government has not relaxed its vigilance against inflation. In order to keep the general price level stable, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen market regulation and control capabilities, implement the "rice bag" governorship responsibility system and the "vegetable basket" mayor responsibility system, do a good job in connection with the production, transportation and sales of important commodities, and effectively reduce the cost of circulation. We must adhere to the real estate control policy unshakeable, promote the reasonable return of housing prices, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

The 2011 Central Economic Work Conference will be held soon. Next year's overall economic situation will focus on how to adjust the work priorities and how macroeconomic policies will be positioned. These publicly-watched topics will be answered one by one. The Politburo meeting held on the 9th actually pointed the way to answer the above questions.

For next year’s macroeconomic policy, the meeting was clearly defined as “implementing proactive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies and maintaining the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies”.

The proactive fiscal policy and sound monetary policy continued the unchanged tone of 2011.

The reason is that from the point of view of monetary policy, next year's economic trend, especially the external environment, is full of uncertainties. If monetary policy is fully relaxed prematurely, it will cause the economy to lay the hidden dangers of restart of inflation and return of asset bubbles, which is not conducive to the economy. Smooth operation. The word “stable” has rich connotations. In the short term, it can guide the monetary policy to change flexibly in the uncertain macroeconomic trend and return to the normal state. In the long run, it can create conditions for economic structural adjustment. Positive fiscal policies can be used to enhance the endogenous power of economic development and promote economic restructuring.

However, the basic tone does not mean that the specific policy remains unchanged.

At present, the deep-seated impact of the international financial crisis continues to show, and instability and uncertainties in the recovery process of developed countries have increased, and China may be affected by trade, capital flows, and expectations. From the domestic point of view, as economic growth adjusts to normal conditions, some new situations and new problems may also gradually appear.

In this context, there is a need for policies to allow for the balance of uncertainty. The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized that "advancement, flexibility, and forward-lookingness of the regulation should be strengthened." It is necessary to strengthen and improve macro-control more predictably, accurately grasp the intensity, pace, and focus of regulation and control, and make timely changes according to the situation. Make pre-adjustment and fine-tuning."

It can be seen from this that the flexibility and predictability of the policy next year will be greater than this year.

Monetary policy will flexibly arrange quantitative reserve instruments such as deposit reserve ratios and open market operations based on changes in capital flows, and rationally use interest rates and other price adjustment measures based on inflation levels and investment saving behavior. At the same time, the credit sector will optimize its structure and increase support for small businesses, farmers, and farmers.

The space for fiscal policy may be greater, and it will be more targeted, highlighting the investment in key spending areas. The fiscal policies that support the upgrading of strategic emerging industries and industrial structures will continue to be promoted in combination with tax incentives and fiscal subsidies. At the same time, financial investment in the area of ​​people's livelihood will also be further strengthened.

Next year is full of uncertainty and external demand is not optimistic. In order to ensure economic growth, the meeting proposed policy ideas such as expanding consumer demand and optimizing investment structure. The expansion of consumption depends on “improving the policies for promoting consumption, striving to increase the consumption power of residents, and increasing the income of low- and middle-income earners”. Investment optimization relies on “protecting the construction of continuing construction projects under construction and orderly advancing major projects identified in the '12th Five-Year Plan'. , strengthen the guidance and regulation of corporate investment."

Next year will also be an important year for the implementation of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The meeting put forward four "emphasis", namely "strive to expand domestic demand, focus on strengthening independent innovation and energy-saving emission reduction, focus on deepening reform and opening up, and strive to protect and improve people's livelihood."

It can be seen from this that next year, taking into account the economic structural adjustment and the stable and rapid economic development, domestic demand has been placed in an extremely important position. To expand domestic demand requires financial "awesomeness." Next year, the government will strengthen financial investment in the area of ​​people's livelihood. In addition to meeting the goal of 4% of education investment in GDP, it will continue to increase investment in the areas of affordable housing construction and water conservancy construction.

At the same time, in order to further deepen economic transformation, industrial policies and regional policies will also be launched intensively. The conference pointed out that we must vigorously promote industrial restructuring and regional coordinated development, actively cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries, promote the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, accelerate the development of service industries, especially modern service industries, and improve the environment for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises; The strategy will increase support for the development of the old revolutionary base areas, ethnic minority areas, frontier regions, and poverty-stricken areas, guide the central and western regions in an orderly manner to undertake industrial transfer, and promote the implementation of the main functional area planning.

The central government has not relaxed its vigilance against inflation. In order to keep the general price level stable, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen market regulation and control capabilities, implement the “rice bag” governor responsibility system and the “vegetable basket” mayor accountability system, do a good job of linking production, transportation, and sales of important commodities, and effectively reduce circulation costs. We must adhere to the real estate control policy unshakeable, promote the reasonable return of housing prices, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

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