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According to the monitoring data from major analytical institutions, due to the delay in the results of the purchase restriction, which has led to some panic buying demand, the upward pressure on house prices in the second and third tier cities has suddenly increased.
Centaline Real Estate recently conducted research on 50 second- and third-tier cities in 15 provinces and cities that did not implement purchase restriction orders. As most of these cities are still in the initial stage or rising stage of real estate market development, the demand for self-occupation is still the demand of these cities. As a result, the transaction volume and transaction prices of these cities in the first half of 2011 were less affected by this round of regulation and the market still maintained its original development trajectory.
In the 50 cities surveyed, the price of houses in none of the cities fell. The prices of residential houses in 37 cities rose slightly, while the prices in the other 13 cities remained basically unchanged. The 13 cities that were flat were distributed in Jiangsu Province, Liaoning Province, Shandong Province, Zhejiang Province, Hubei Province, Hunan Province and Yunnan Province. Provinces.
In terms of volume, the survey results showed that half of the cities rose year-on-year, and 50 of the second and third tier cities that were not â€œrestricted from purchasingâ€ in Yanjiao, Langfang, Baoding, Tai'an, Weifang, Weihai, Yantai, Zibo, Dongguan, Huizhou, and Zhongshan etc. In half a year, the turnover of residential housing in 26 cities increased year-on-year. There were 11 in the same period and only 13 in the downward trend.
Zhang Dawei, director of Beijing Zhongyuan Market Research Department, told the â€œEconomic Information Dailyâ€ reporter that at present, cities that are not limited to purchase on the second and third tiers face dual pressures, local investment needs and transfer investment requirements for first-line cities. The pressure of the real estate market in the country is set to be released in the second and third tier cities. The continued rise in the prices of the second and third lines also affected the effectiveness of the first-line regulation.
In fact, the momentum of rising housing prices does indeed exist in the second and third tier cities. According to the statistics of the Chain Home Real Estate Market Research Department, the average price of residential houses in Beijing in early August was 33,500 yuan per square meter, up 16% from June. In the past three months (June-August), among the 14 projects in the urban area, 10 average transaction prices have risen to varying degrees from the previous period, and the proportion has reached 71%.
Zhang Yue, chief analyst of Chain Home Real Estate, told the â€œEconomic Information Dailyâ€ reporter that the price increase is very likely to be the game performance of market supply and demand for prices in the short term. The turning point of price decline in the short term is hard to emerge.
Nielsen released a research report, said that 69% of respondents believe that house prices will continue to rise, 20% of respondents believe that will remain unchanged, 11% believe that house prices will decline.
Zhang Dawei told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that the tightening of the purchase restriction policy will have a greater impact on the market. At present, the purchase restriction is still the most effective means of market regulation. The continued rise in housing prices in second-tier and third-tier cities has affected the effectiveness of the first-line regulation. It can be seen that regulation still needs to be strengthened in the second and third-tier cities.
Zhang Dawei said: â€œRestricted cities should be made public as soon as possible. Recently, there have been many cities rushing to catch the last train because of panic restriction. Local governments also have a game. Although marginal adjustments such as Langfang limit, Jiangmen limit purchase, etc In place, there has been some panic in the region's markets. Policies should be determined as soon as possible."
According to the monitoring data provided by Centaline Property, in the 70 new large-scale commercial housing index, the 39 cities with clear restrictions on purchases had an average year-on-year increase of 4.23% in June, and the non-restricted 31 cities had an average increase of 4.66. %. The year-on-year increase of the Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the most restrictive purchases, was only 3.85%.
Yang Hongxu told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter, "Although the second-tier and third-tier cities restricted purchases are expected to affect, housing prices have shown signs of falling, but are still rising."
Yang Hongxu believes that the introduction of the results of the second and third tier restrictions before the end of August is "not likely." However, "even if not limited, most second- and third-tier cities will cool prices," as soon as the restriction of the results of the introduction of the results will be more significant.
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